Predictive Modeling of Blockchain Stability Using Machine Learning to Enhance Network Resilience

Abstract

Blockchain technology is widely recognized for its security, transparency, and decentralization, yet ensuring the stability of blockchain networks as they scale remains a significant challenge. This study introduces a novel approach by integrating machine learning models to evaluate and predict blockchain stability, offering a proactive solution to maintain network reliability. The primary objective was to identify the key factors influencing stability and assess the effectiveness of different machine learning models in predicting instability events. Using a dataset derived from blockchain transaction data and network metrics, we applied Random Forest, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, and K-Means Clustering algorithms. The LSTM model demonstrated the highest accuracy (94.3%) and an AUC-ROC of 0.952, significantly outperforming other models in predicting stability events. The Random Forest model revealed that transaction throughput and network latency are the most critical factors, contributing 35.2% and 28.1% to network stability, respectively. Additionally, K-Means Clustering identified three distinct stability patterns, each representing different risk levels, providing actionable insights for network management. The key contribution of this research lies in the integration of machine learning into blockchain management, presenting a novel approach that enhances the predictability and resilience of blockchain systems. The findings suggest that machine learning can be effectively employed to develop early warning systems, enabling timely interventions to prevent network instability. This study not only advances the understanding of blockchain stability but also offers practical solutions for its enhancement, marking a significant step forward in the field. Future work should focus on the real-time implementation of these models and the exploration of more advanced techniques to further improve predictive capabilities.