Adaptive Blockchain-Orchestrated Supply Chain Resilience Through Predictive Maritime Disruption Intelligence

Global maritime supply chains have become increasingly vulnerable to systemic disruptions caused by pandemics, geopolitical conflicts, port congestion, and logistics instability. These disruptions significantly affect freight volatility, operational efficiency, and global trade resilience. This study proposes an Adaptive Blockchain-Orchestrated Supply Chain Resilience Framework using predictive maritime disruption intelligence to enhance adaptive logistics coordination and proactive risk mitigation. The proposed framework integrates maritime congestion analytics, supply chain vulnerability indicators, machine learning-based predictive intelligence, and blockchain-enabled adaptive orchestration into a unified resilience architecture. An XGBoost predictive model was developed using multi-dimensional maritime disruption features, including congestion index, supply chain pressure index, operational delays, trade flow indicators, and vulnerability metrics. Experimental results demonstrated strong predictive performance, with the proposed model achieving an R² value of 0.842 in forecasting maritime shipping rate volatility. Feature importance analysis revealed that systemic supply chain pressure was the dominant predictor of freight disruption dynamics. The adaptive risk evaluation further identified significant disruption escalation during the 2020–2022 global logistics crisis. In addition, the blockchain orchestration layer generated dynamic resilience responses, including route optimization, supplier reallocation, and smart contract activation for decentralized operational coordination. The findings indicate that predictive blockchain-enabled maritime intelligence can substantially improve supply chain resilience through real-time disruption prediction, adaptive decision-making, and automated operational response generation. This research contributes to the development of intelligent resilient logistics systems for future global maritime supply chain management.